濮阳市汛期特旱、特涝异常年趋势预测方法

通过计算旱涝指数，科学、客观地定出大早大涝年。通过对太阳活动、ENS0现象、大气环流与濮阳汛期早涝的相关分析，筛选出相关因子，建立了汛期特旱、特涝异常年及排除特旱、特涝年后的一般降水趋势3重预报方程。方程对特旱年的预报概括率100％，对特涝年的概括率86％，一般降水趋势预报准确率88％。

The Tendency Forecast of Flood Season during Especially Drought and Flood year in Puyang

By calculate the drought and flow index, the especially drought and flood years has been got. The correlation between some factors and it has been analyzed, such as solar activity, enso, and the atmosphere circulation. Then the forecast index can be given and the equation of rain tendency was presented .The accuracy of normal rain tendency is about 88%, especially drought about 100%, especially flood about 86%, and the latter two is to validate the equation.