产业结构生态预警研究——以甘肃省为例

区域产业的发展及其组合类型、强度的变化都将对生态环境产生强烈的胁迫。有关经济、环境预警的基本方法引入产业结构生态预警研究中,建立了产业结构生态预警的指标体系及预警模型,并以甘肃省为例进行了产业结构生态效应的景气预警和景兆预警评价。研究发现,1996- 2004年间,有2/3年份的产业结构生态效应处于巨警状态;2005-2009年间,所有年份的产业结构生态效应都处于重警状态。

Ecological forewarning of industrial structure——A case of Gansu Province

The industry developing and changing of the industrial structure and intension will affect eco-environ- ment intensely.The paper applies economics and environment methods to forewarning the eco-environment influ- ence of industrial structure,founds the index system that includes the resource using efficiency,eco-environment pollution and destruction,environment protecting and harnessing,society and economic,etc.And the paper builds up the forewarning model of ecological forewarning of industrial structure,establishes the index's estimation criteri- on,and divides the alert level of industrial structure ecological forewarning.Moreover,the paper evaluates the prosperity ecological forewarning and omen ecological forewarning in Gansu.In order to calculate the alert level of the indexes in Gansu,the paper firstly disposes the normal alert indexes in accordance with the value of the alert indexes in 1995 to be the criterion value and the value of the alert indexes in 2010 to be target value in Gansu,then evaluate the prosperity ecological forewarning and omen ecological forewarning.The results are as follows:(1) in course of 1996 and 2004,the alert level of the prosperity ecological forewarning of industrial structure goes over 3. 0 and the eco-environment benefit is at tremendous alert level in about 2/3 years,showing the double-red light, more than the 50% alert indexes are at serious alert level in mostly years;(2) in course of 2005 and 2009,the a- lert level of the omen ecological forewarning of industrial structure is under 2.5 and the eco-environment benefit is at serious alert level every year,more than the 50% alert indexes are at middle alert level,showing the yellow light.The results show the pressure of the industrial structure to the eco-environment is serious;the self-adjusting capacity of the eco-environment in Gansu is very low.It is necessary to found a sustainable industrial development policy to promote the industrial transformation.