The fuzzy forecast of the activity of solar active regions |
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| Authors: | Shu-Rong Zhou Guang-Li Huang Zheng-Zhong Han Cheng Fang |
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| Affiliation: | (1) Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, 210008, P.R. China;(2) National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, P.R. China;(3) Southeast University, Nanjing, 210018, P.R. China;(4) Department of Astronomy, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093, P.R. China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the theory and method of fuzzy mathematics are applied to forecast the activity of solar active regions. According to the correlation between flares and several solar activity indices of active regions, the membership functions are constructed to comprehensively evaluate and predict the activity of solar active regions. By means of data reduction and analysis, some comparatively accurate results of prediction have been obtained. The accuracy of predicting the activity grades of active regions is higher than 97%. This implies that the method of fuzzy forecast is a good one for solar activity prediction. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. |
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