奈曼旗土地沙漠化系统动态仿真研究

本文应用系统动力学理论建立了奈曼旗土地沙漠化动态仿真模型。奈曼旗土地沙漠化系统由种植业、林业、畜牧业、草地和人口五个动态子系统构成。本文根据土地沙漠化系统中正负反馈关系,建立了系统流图和构造方程,并经仿真运算,就农林牧土地利用构成的三种不同方案,对到2040年该旗沙漠化发展趋势分别作了预测。

RESEARCH ON THE DYNAMIC SIMULATING OF LAND DESERTIFICATION IN THE NAIMAN BANNER, INNER MONGOLIA

A dynamic simulating model of land desertification in the Naiman Banner, Inner Mongolia was established by means of system dynamic theory. The land desertification system in the Naiman Banner consists of five subsystems, i.e., farming, forestry, animal husbandry, grassland and population. According to positive-negative feedback relations in the land desertification, 75 equations were built and carried out schematic prediction with IBM PC/XT computer by using Micro-Dynamo language- With farming, forestry and animal husbandry forming three different landuse schemes, the desertification developmental trends in the banner up to 2040 were predicted. Predictions showed that the best landuse structures for farming, forestry and animal husbandry in the banner will be 15: 23: 62 in 2000; 16: 31: 53 in 2020 and 18: 44: 38 in 2040. Such a dynamic change of landuse structure will effectively control the desertification process and gain the best economic and ecological benefits.