中国石油安全评价及建议

石油安全对一个国家的经济发展具有重大意义。随着中国经济的持续快速增长,以及受国内石油资源短缺、石油地缘政治等因素的影响,国内石油供需矛盾进一步加剧,石油安全问题日益显现。为科学地评价中国石油安全的程度,先从国内资源禀赋、国内生产能力、国际市场可得性和国家应急保障能力4个方面设计了石油安全评价指标体系;然后,再采用德尔菲法、主成分分析法,选取国内原油储采比、国内原油储量替代率、国内石油消费对外依存度、国内石油进口集中度、国际原油价格和国内石油储备水平6个要素指标,构成一个新的综合指标,即石油安全度;最后,以石油安全度为工具,对中国近年来石油安全的形势进行了定量评价。

Appraisal and suggestions of petroleum security in China

Petroleum security is of great significance for the economic development of a country. Along with the rapid economic growth in China and because of domestic petroleum shortage and petroleum geopolitics, the contradiction between petroleum supply and demand is further intensifying and the problem of petroleum security becomes apparent day by day. In order to appraise the degree of China's petroleum security scientifically, an indicator system for appraising the petroleum security is designed from four aspects, i.e. domestic petroleum resources gifts, domestic petroleum production capacity, availability of petroleum supply in the international market and domestic emergency response and guarantee capability. Then the Delphi technique and principal components analysis are used to choose six factors from the system to form a new integrated index-degrees of petroleum security. The six factors are the domestic crude oil reserve-production ratio, the domestic crude oil reserve replacement ratio, dependency of domestic petroleum consumption on import, concentration ratio of domestic petroleum imports, international crude oil prices and domestic petroleum reserve storage level. Finally the degrees of petroleum security are used as a tool to make a quantitative appraisal of the petroleum security in China in recent years.