高精度高空风预报技术探讨

针对航天气象保障中高分辨率高空风的预报需求，利用欧洲数值预报、GRAPESGFS、导航探空数据，通过WRF模式直接输出、高空风模式产品融合、动力统计订正等方法实现了20 km以下逐250 m的高空风短期预报，并选择2019年11月—2020年3月进行试验，结果表明：U风预报好于V风；5～14 km高空风预报效果好于其它层次；在模式产品融合基础上进行的动力统计订正，预报效果最好，对于同层U、V风，4 m/s偏差内预报准确率为77.4%,6 m/s偏差内预报准确率为93.2%。

Discussion On Short-term Forecast Technology Of High-resolution High-altitude Wind

To meet the forecasting requirements of high-resolution high-altitude winds in aerospace meteorological support,based on ECMWF, GRAPES-GFS, navigation sounding data, through WRF model design, high-altitude winds model product fusion,and dynamic statistics correction, etc., have achieved 250m below 20km. The short-term forecast of high-altitude wind was selected and tested from November 2019 to March 2020. The results show that the U wind forecast is better than the V wind; the 5-14km high altitude wind forecast is better; the dynamic statistical correction based on the WRF model and the integration of high altitude wind products has the best forecast effect. For U and V winds in the same layer, 4m / s deviation forecast accuracy rate is 77.4%, 6m / s deviation forecast accuracy rate is 93.2%.