全球地缘政治格局演变的动力机制——基于变量与变量关系的解析

纵观全球地缘政治格局演变的历史进程,格局的转换总是伴随着大国的兴衰交替、力量的分化与组合和权利的失衡与平衡,规律性的现象是不变的动力机制所致,这种机制对当今全球地缘政治格局的发展与演化依然有着重要作用和深远影响。采用一种机制的视角,以机制及机制间的变量关系解析为主要途径,来研究全球地缘政治格局演变的动力机制。将全球地缘政治格局演变的动力机制划分为一个核心机制、两个子机制和两个辅助机制。其中,力量结构的变化是全球地缘政治格局演变的重要标志,将其确定为演变的核心机制。大国兴衰和大国地缘战略关系的质变是引起力量结构变化的根本原因,将二者确定为核心机制的子机制。资源地缘政治和地缘文化是全球地缘政治格局演变的重要影响,将其作为辅助机制进行研究。在全球地缘政治格局演变的分机制研究的基础上,通过建立分机制间的耦合关系,得到全球地缘政治格局演变的动力机制。

Dynamic mechanism in global geopolitical pattern evolution: Analysis based on variables and variable relationship

A general survey of the historical process of global geopolitics pattern evolution shows that, the transformation of global geopolitical pattern is always accompanied by the rise and fall of major world countries, differentiation and restructuring of great powers, unbalance and balance of rights. The regularity of the phenomenon is caused by the constant dynamic mechanism, and this mechanism still plays an important role and has far-reaching influence on the development and evolution of the current global geopolitics. This paper studies the dynamic mechanism of global geopolitical pattern evolution from the perspective of a mechanism, which is based on the analysis of variable relationship among mechanisms. The dynamic mechanism of global geopolitical pattern evolution is divided into a core mechanism, two sub-mechanisms and two auxiliary mechanisms. The change of the power structure is the important symbol of global geopolitical pattern evolution, which is identified as the core mechanism of evolution. Among them, the qualitative change in the rise and fall of powers and geostrategic relations is the fundamental cause of the power structure change, which is identified as two sub-mechanisms of core mechanism. Resource geopolitics and geo-cultural factors are researched as auxiliary mechanisms which are important approaches to influencing global geopolitical pattern evolution. Based on division mechanisms research of global geopolitical evolution, the dynamic mechanism of global geopolitical pattern evolution is obtained through establishing the coupling between division mechanisms.