黄淮海平原耕地功能演变的时空特征及其驱动机制

本文以县域为基本研究单元,从经济、社会及生态三个维度构建了耕地功能评价指标体系,分析了黄淮海平原耕地功能演化的时空特征,利用耦合动态度模型探讨了耕地功能间耦合关系的演变。在此基础上,利用空间计量模型,对耕地功能演化的驱动机制进行了定量分析。研究结果表明：① 1990-2010年间,冀中南及豫东地区部分欠发达县市耕地经济功能明显增强,发达的城市群及其腹地受工业化及城镇化影响较大,耕地经济功能持续下降;60.29%的县域单元耕地的社会功能下降,增强区主要集聚于郑州北部、德州及沧州西部、烟台、威海等区域;生态功能变化在空间格局上基本形成了以豫北、山东中部山地丘陵区为核心的增长区以及以环京津、环济南地区为核心的持续下降区。② 黄淮海平原耕地经济、社会及生态功能的耦合度及协调度空间差异显著,且退耦化现象日渐突出;经济发达地区耕地的社会及生态功能演化速率普遍滞后于经济功能。③ 黄淮海平原耕地的功能演化是区域本底因素与外部驱动因素综合作用的结果;城镇化与工业化进程中人口、产业的转型对耕地经济、社会及生态功能演化的强度及方向起决定性作用。并指出：黄淮海平原应激活农业现代化、产业化发展动力,促进传统农业的转型升级,充分考虑耕地功能演化的区域分异特征,实行由发达城市地区到欠发达传统农区的差异化、多元化的耕地多功能利用与管理模式。

Spatio-temporal characteristics and dynamic mechanism of farmland functions evolution in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

Taking counties as the basic unit, this paper establishes the evaluation index system of farmland functions from the dimensions of economy, society and ecology, adopts the method combining entropy weighting and multiple correlation coefficient weighting to determine the weights, and calculates the farmland function indices of each county. Subsequently, the spatio-temporal characteristics of farmland functions evolution were analyzed and the coupling relationships between the sub-functions were explored based on the coupling coordination model, simultaneously, the dynamic mechanism of farmland functions evolution was quantitatively probed by applying the spatial econometric regression analysis method in this research. Major conclusions were drawn as follows: (1) The farmland economic function generally presented a declining trend during 1990-2010. Especially, the function is strengthened in underdeveloped and agriculture dominated counties, and weakened continuously in developed areas on contrary; 60.29% of the counties decrease in farmland social function, whereas some counties, which are mostly located in the north of Zhengzhou, the west of Dezhou and Cangzhou, Yantai and Weihai, have experienced an obvious increase; The dramatic decline of farmland ecological function has occurred around Beijing, Tianjin and Jinan. Areas located in northern Henan Province and central Shandong Province has witnessed an increase of ecological function. (2) There is a significant spatial difference in the coupling degree and coordination degree of the sub-functions, and the decoupling phenomenon gradually highlights. The changes of social function and ecological function lag behind those of economic function in developed areas, but they are highly coupled in some underdeveloped areas. (3) The evolution of farmland functions in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain resulted from the comprehensive effects of regional basic conditions and external driving factors. Furthermore, the transition of population and industry in the process of urbanization and industrialization plays a decisive role in evolution intensity and direction of farmland sub-systems including economy, society and ecology. According to the results above mentioned, agricultural modernization, industrialization and promoting the transformation of traditional agriculture should be regarded as an important engine driving the sustainable development of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. In view of regional differentiation characteristics of farmland functions evolution, differentiated and diversified farmland use and management modes should be implemented from developed urban areas to underdeveloped traditional agricultural areas.