技术扩散还是效率优先——基于“美团网”的中国O2O电子商务空间渗透探讨

关于电子商务的空间发展问题,学界提出了技术扩散假说和效率假说。技术扩散假说认为发达城市地区的电子商务发展更好,效率假说则认为欠发达城市地区的电子商务发展更好,两者内涵存在明显争议。以中国286个地级市的O2O电子商务为例,采用空间计量模型、多元线性回归等方法,尝试探讨了其空间发展更倾向于技术扩散还是效率优先。结果表明：① 中国O2O电子商务的规模指数在空间上呈现出由东部沿海向西北内陆逐渐递减的等级式特征,但其发展水平指数的空间格局表现出均质化特征,其渗透指数呈现出由东部沿海向西北内陆逐渐递增的“逆等级”式空间格局。② 实体商业对O2O电子商务的发展具有显著约束力,但交通条件对其具有明显的促进作用,因此,中国O2O电子商务的空间发展更倾向遵循效率假说内涵,但也并非完全契合于该假说。③ 中国O2O电子商务“逆等级”式的空间格局对欠发达城市地区实体商业有更强的促进作用,这会引导中国宏观商业格局趋于均质化。

Innovation diffusion hypothesis or efficiency hypothesis: Spatial penetration of online-to-offline e-commerce in China based on Meituan.com

Two hypotheses about the spatial development of urban e-commerce are proposed herein. The innovation diffusion hypothesis surmises e-commerce exhibits better development in strongly urbanized areas than that in weakly urbanized areas. However, the efficiency hypothesis asserts there is better development in weakly urbanized areas. Obviously, the path the spatial development of urban e-commerce follows is a debated topic. In the context of the two hypotheses, we take online-to-offline (O2O) e-commerce of 286 Chinese prefecture-level cities as a research sample, and adopt spatial analysis models and multilinear regression to explore which hypothesis spatial patterns of e-commerce in China follow. The results indicate, first, the spatial pattern of comprehensive size of O2O e-commerce follows a hierarchy of decreasing from China's east coast to the inland areas. However, the development level of such e-commerce follows uniform spatial distribution, and its penetration level follows a "reverse hierarchy" of increasing from the east coast to the inland area. Second, in weakly urbanized areas, less-developed traditional commerce (physical stores) promotes development of O2O e-commerce. Thus, the spatial pattern of O2O e-commerce in China tends to follow the efficiency hypothesis. However, the development level of traffic has a promoting effect on O2O e-commerce development. This is contrary to the efficiency hypothesis. Therefore, the efficiency hypothesis is not absolutely suitable for explaining the spatial development of O2O e-commerce in China. Finally, the reverse hierarchy spatial pattern of O2O e-commerce has a greater promoting effect on the development of traditional commerce in weakly urbanized areas, which will lead to uniform distribution of urban commerce in China.