碳排放和减碳的社会经济代价研究进展与方法探究

碳排放和减碳的社会经济影响与代价评估日益受到学术界和决策者的关注,本文综合分析了全球范围内碳排放与减碳社会经济影响的重要科学问题和国内外研究现状,基于卫星最新观测到的全球CO₂非均匀分布的事实,针对温控1.5 ℃和2 ℃阈值情景,探讨了全球二氧化碳非均匀动态分布与地表温度时空关系,全球二氧化碳非均匀动态分布状况下主要国家碳排放空间评价以及温控1.5 ℃和2 ℃阈值情景下中国碳排放和减碳社会经济代价评估等问题可采取的技术模型方案,并提出了构建新气候变化经济学的理论方法与技术体系。本文构建的技术路线和研究方法拟为国家制订各项应对碳排放和减碳战略与对策、减缓气候变化并实现可持续转型、提升中国在应对气候变化领域的国际话语权等方面提供决策支持。

Methodological Framework and Research Progress on the Social and Economic Costs of Carbon Emission and Reduction

Social and economic costs of carbon emission and reduction have increasingly been one of the hot research topics and are concerns by the policy makers of academic communities. We have conducted a comprehensive analysis on the key scientific issues and research progress on global carbon emission and carbon mitigation at both domestic and abroad. The latest observations from carbon satellites have proved that the global carbon dioxide has been spatially unevenly distributed. Given the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C temperature increase limits of the Paris Agreement, we propose a technical framework to explore the temporal and spatial relationship between CO₂ non-uniform dynamic distribution and global surface temperature, and to evaluate the carbon emission of selected major countries on the conditions of CO₂ non-uniform dynamic distribution, and to estimate the social and economic costs of carbon emission and carbon reduction under the scenario of the 1.5°C and 2.0°C temperature limits. We finally propose an in-depth applied research on the complex relationships between climate change, economic growth and technology development. The technical framework and research methodologies in this paper will provide supports for the government on the aspects of formulating strategies and countermeasures for carbon emission and carbon reduction, by providing decision-making advices on mitigating climate change and achieving sustainable transformation and enhancing China′s dominant voice in the carbon diplomacy as well.