一种新的气候变化敏感区的定义方法与预估

气候变化敏感区的研究是气候变化研究的一个重要方向,前人对气候变化敏感区的定义大多基于单一的指标,而对综合性指标研究较少。基于柯本气候分类法所划分出的中国气候类型分布及其变化频次,提出一种新的气候变化敏感区定义方法,并使用该方法划分中国的气候变化敏感区,气候类型变化频繁的区域被认为是敏感区。选取CESM模型中等碳排放（RCP 4.5）下的模拟数据计算2006-2013年、21世纪40年代和90年代气候类型的变化,以此预估未来30~80年间气候变化敏感带的变化。结果显示：依据本文提出的方法划分的气候变化敏感区,与降水变化敏感区有较好拟合;中国气候变化最敏感的区域分布在黑河腾冲线附近、秦岭淮河一线、青藏高原西部和天山以北部分地区,气候最为稳定的区域分布在青藏高原中东部、昆仑山、祁连山以北、天山以南、贺兰山以西的大片区域和大兴安岭附近;未来30~80年间,西部（贺兰山、横断山以西）地区气候变化敏感区基本不变,而东部地区的气候变化敏感区则逐渐向北偏移。

A new definition method of climate-sensitive region and its prediction

The climate-sensitive region is an important direction of climate change research, however most previous studies paid more attention to research on single index, instead of that on comprehensive indicators. Based on the spatial distribution and temporal variation of climate types defined by the K?ppen climate classification, this research presents a new definition method to classify the Chinese climate-sensitive regions, where climate types varied frequently. Here we selected Community Earth System Model (CESM) under the intermediate carbon emission scenario (RCP4.5) to simulate the change of climate types during 2006-2013, the 2040s and the 2090s, and predicted the variation of climate-sensitive regions in the next 30 to 80 years. The results indicate that the climate change sensitive regions were consistent with the precipitation sensitive regions. The most sensitive regions in China are located near the Heihe-Tengchong Line, the Qinling-Huaihe region, the western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the north of the Tianshan Mountains, while the most stable regions are distributed in the east-central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Kunlun Mountains, the north of Qilian Mountains, the south of the Tianshan Mountains, the west of Helan Mountains and the Da Hinggan Mountains region. In the next 30 to 80 years, the climate change sensitive regions in the western part of China (the west of Helan Mountains and Hengduan Mountains) will be stable, while in the eastern they are shifting northward significantly. This study provides a new perspective for the research of climate change sensitivity and regional responses to climate change, and it is conducive to a timely and effective decision-making in tackling climate change.