中国区域经济发展差异的实证研究与R/S分析

文章回顾了改革开放以来中国经济发展战略的转变，介绍了吉尼系数，区域经济区位熵和Hausdoeff Index的计算方法。采用GDP指标，运用吉尼系数和区域经济区位熵分析了改革开放以来中国三大地带之间，省区之间的绝对差距和相对差距的变化趋势，而且还运用分形理论和R／S方法研究了中国区域经济发展差异的收敛性，得出的结论如下：（1）无论从绝对差距还是从相对差距上看，自改变开放以来中国三大地带之间或省区之间的经济发展差距都在扩大。（2）1995年所实施的区域协调发展战略在近期内并没有缩小地区之间的发展差距。（3）R／S分析结果表明中国区域经济发展差异在未来20年内将继续扩大。

A Discussion on China's Regional Economic Disparities and R/S Analysis

This paper reviewed the general research trend in the field of regional economic development disparities and introduced the methods of measuring Gini Coefficient, Hausdorff Index and Regional Economic Location Quotient to the study of economic absolute and comparative disparities within provinces and between Three Regions. The convergence of economic disparities is discussed with Fractal Theory and R/S method. The changes of regional development strategies since the Reform Period are also mentioned in the paper. The conclusions are as the following: (1) Both regional economic absolute disparities and comparative disparities have increased gradually since the Reform Period, but increased rapidly after the year 1990. (2) The Regional Economic Harmonic Development Strategy implemented in 1995 by China government did not narrow the economic development gap within China. (3) The R/S analytical results show that regional economic development disparities continue to increase in the future 20 years.