| 徐州大屯中心区地面沉降趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 张茂永,孟磊,王传林,冯启言.徐州大屯中心区地面沉降趋势预测[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2007,18(3):11-13. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张茂永 孟磊 王传林 冯启言 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 徐州大屯工程咨询有限公司,徐州,221611
2. 中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,徐州,221008 |
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| 摘 要： | 徐州大屯中心区1988年建立了地面沉降观测系统,2005年最大累计沉降量达到600 mm.累计沉降量大于100 mm的地区面积达到11.57 km2.本文根据近20年的沉降观测数据分析了中心区地面沉降的时空分布特征,并采用灰色模型方法,对地面沉降趋势进行了预测,结果表明到2010年最大累计沉降量将达到753 mm,累计沉降量大于100 mm的地区将达到32.86 km2,对中心区的建筑、地下管网将造成较大威胁,应尽快采取防治措施.
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| 关 键 词： | 地面沉降 灰色模型 预测 大屯中心区 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-4362（2007）03-0011-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-10-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-14 |
A FORECAST OF LAND SUBSIDENCE TREND IN DATUN CENTRAL AREA OF XUZHOU CITY |
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| ZHANG Mao-yong,MENG Lei,WANG Chuan-lin,FENG Qi-yan.A FORECAST OF LAND SUBSIDENCE TREND IN DATUN CENTRAL AREA OF XUZHOU CITY[J].Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2007,18(3):11-13. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Mao-yong MENG Lei WANG Chuan-lin FENG Qi-yan |
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| Institution: | 1. Xuzhou Datun Engineering Consulting Co. , Ltd. Xuzhou 221611,China; 2. School of Environment and Spatial Informatics,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221008,China |
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| Abstract: | Land subsidence in Datun central area has been systemically monitored since 1988. The maximal depth of subsidence was up to 600 mm and the subsiding area where the depth is over 100 mm has reached 11.57 km^2 in 2005. Based on the survey data of 20 years the spatio-temporal evolution of subsidence was analyzed. A grey model for the subsidence prediction was established. The prediction results show that the maximal depth of subsidence will be 753 mm in the year of 2010, and the area over 100 mm deep will be 32.86 km^2. It will be harmful to the building and underground pipe lines, and some control measures must be taken as soon as possible. |
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| Keywords: | land subsidence grey model forecast Datun central area |
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