南海和西北太平洋台风异常路径频数及其与厄尼诺现象关系的分析

本文应用南海和西北太平洋的台风路径资料,对1884—1985年(共102年)间南海和西北太平洋台风异常路径活动逐年频数进行分析,发现存在着明显的12年、30年周期。此外,根据1949年以来资料表明,南海和西北太平洋台风异常路径与厄尼诺现象存在一定关系。 

A ANALYSIS OF TYPHOON OCCURRENCES WITH IRREGULAR MOTIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND THEIR RELATION TO EL NINO

With the use of data from 1884 to 1985 (102 years in all), irregular motions are analyzed for the typhoons in individual years over the South China Sea and northwestern Pacific. Three points are preliminarily revealed:1) The annual occurrences during the years tend to spread in multi-year concentrations. Periods of 12 and 30 years are derived from analyses of maximum entropy, the more outstanding of which is the low-frequency oscillations at 30 years.2) No obvious corelations are found between E1 Nino events and typphoons with irregular motions over the said waters from 1884 to 1948,possibly caused by the lack of reliability for the data during the time.3) E1 Nino and that type of typhoon do have some association from 1949. Typhoons have more irregular motions in E1 Nino years than in reversed El Nino years. Crawling-snake-like motions show the greatest difference, followed by left-curving motions. Those that rotate do not have any difference.