GM(1,1)模型反演预测方法在沉降预测中的应用

为了研究提高GM(1,1)模型预测精度的方法,本文首先讨论了GM(1,1)模型对初值的不敏感性和拟合预测序列增长率的恒定性;其次,根据GM(1,1)的性质提出新陈代谢反演预测的方法;最后,通过工程实例对比不同模型的预测精度。结果表明:GM(1,1)反演预测方法具有很高的预测精度,适用于沉降变形预测。

Application of GM ( 1,1) Model Inversion Prediction Method in Settlement Prediction

Study on improving the accuracy of the method of GM ( 1,1) prediction model. Firstly, the insensitivity of GM ( 1,1) model to initial value and the stability of the growth rate of the fitted prediction sequence are discussed. Secondly, according to the nature of GM ( 1,1) , a method of metabolic inversion prediction is proposed. Finally, the prediction accuracy of different models is compared by an engineering example. The results show that the GM ( 1,1) inversion prediction method has high prediction accuracy and is suit-able for prediction of settlement deformation.