托木尔峰南麓径流变化的气候因素分析

以冰雪融水补给为主的托木尔峰南麓河流, 温度的上升和降水的增大均对径流的增加有积极的作用. 互功率谱分析表明: 本区冰雪融水补给为主的径流周期波动主要受温度周期波动的影响, 温度对径流量变化的影响显著大于降水对径流的影响, 对径流主要的周期变化起控制作用, 径流量的不同尺度周期波动变化对温度的响应存在滞后性. 降水是径流周期变化的次要控制因子, 对径流的影响具两面性和不确定性.

Runoff Change on the South Slopes of Mount Tomur and Its Response to Climatic Variation

Runoff of the rivers on the south slopes of the Mount Tomur has increased since the mid 1980s, because temperature and precipitation in this area has increased rapidly. As supply rate of meltwater from glaciers is important to these rivers, fluctuation of temperature and its impact on the ablation of glaciers and snow influence the runoff directly. The respondency of runoff to temperature and precipitation is analyzed by means of cross-spectral analysis. In addition, some new functions, such as coherence function, gain function and phase spectrum function, are calculated from the cross-amplitude function and the simple-density spectrum. It is revealed that the runoff's fluctuation with periods of 5~6 a and 11 a is controlled principally by temperature, and the change of runoff lags the fluctuation of temperature for 21 and 23 mouths. However, precipitation influences the runoff's fluctuation a little when the frequency is low. When the frequency is high, both precipitation and temperature influence the runoff. In all the frequency, temperature has a predominate effect on the runoff. Finally, it is considered that temperature is the first factor and precipitation is the second factor to impact the change of the runoff at the south slopes of the Mount Tomur.