自然过程与人文过程模拟之差异比较分析

模拟是对历史事件的重现，在模拟的基础上可以加以预测用来推断事件未来的发展。以台风移动与降水和三次产业结构演进两个模拟案例为代表，对地理学两大重要分支学科自然地理学和人文地理学分别对应的自然过程模拟和人文过程模拟的差异特点进行了初步比较。主要集中在系统分析框架下的主要组成要素、构建系统框架的知识背景基础、模拟的数据来源和定量化方法以及研究核心对象与应用范式4 个方面对自然过程模拟和人文过程模拟之间的差异进行了总结，并对两者的发展趋势作了简述。最后指出无论自然过程模拟还是人文过程模拟都是区域可持续发展不可或缺的两种模拟技术，随着人地系统理论的深入发展，这两种模拟技术未来必然会逐渐相互渗透融合，界限不再简单分明。

A Comparative Study on the Differences of Physical Process and Human Process Modeling

Modeling is a good method that could show us the recurrence of historical events if we want to know how the historical events took place. It helps us to promote the understanding of the events in the past. Even we can forecast the events that we care about in the future based on the high precision modeling. Taking two modeling cases of typhoon landing and its precipitation, and of the structure evolution of China's three industries as examples, we compare the differences of two modeling techniques of geography, namely, the physical process modeling and human process modeling, belonging to physical geography and human geography respectively. This paper singles out four aspects of major differences between them and discusses these issues, including the dominating elements in system analysis framework and the background information, in system analysis framework, data sources and quantitative methods, and the central objects of study and application paradigms. We describe the development trends of physical process and human process in a brief way. This paper points out that the modeling of both physical and human processes are two important approaches to regional sustainable development, and with the development of man-land system theory, the two modeling techniques will be integrated, and hence their border becomes blurred.