Progress in the Study of Nonlinear Atmospheric Dynamics and
Predictability of Weather and Climate in China (2007--2011) |
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Authors: | ZHOU Feifan DING Ruiqiang FENG Guolin FU Zuntao and DUAN Wansuo |
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Institution: | Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration,
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 |
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Abstract: | Recent progress in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and related
predictability of weather and climate in China (2007--2011) are briefly
introduced in this article.
Major achievements in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics have been
classified into two types: (1) progress based on the analysis of solutions
of simplified control equations, such as the dynamics of NAO, the optimal
precursors for blocking onset, and the behavior of nonlinear waves, and (2)
progress based on data analyses, such as the nonlinear analyses of
fluctuations and recording-breaking temperature events, the long-range
correlation of extreme events, and new methods of detecting abrupt dynamical
change.
Major achievements in the study of predictability include the following: (1)
the application of nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents (NLLE) to weather and
climate predictability; (2) the application of condition nonlinear optimal
perturbation (CNOP) to the studies of El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) predictions, ensemble forecasting, targeted observation, and
sensitivity analysis of the ecosystem; and (3) new strategies proposed for
predictability studies.
The results of these studies have provided greater understanding of the
dynamics and nonlinear mechanisms of atmospheric motion, and they represent
new ideas for developing numerical models and improving the forecast skill
of weather and climate events. |
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Keywords: | nonlinear atmospheric dynamics predictability weather climate |
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