Interannual variability of Gulf Stream warm-core rings in response to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Analysis of a quality-controlled database of Gulf Stream warm-core rings (WCRs) between 75° and 50°W during 1978–1999 demonstrates a significant correlation between WCR occurrences and variations in large-scale atmospheric forcing related to the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The mechanisms for linking the NAO with the rate of WCR occurrences are two-fold: (1) the influence of the NAO on Gulf Stream (GS) position, which could affect the interaction of the Gulf Stream with the New England Seamounts chain and thus allow for a higher/lower number of WCR occurrences; (2) the NAO-induced eddy kinetic energy (EKE) variability in the Gulf Stream region (GSR), which is indicative of the baroclinic instability processes necessary for WCR formation. Variability in GS movement is studied by analyzing annual mean positions of the Gulf Stream North Wall obtained from satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) frontal charts. Response of GSR EKE to fluctuations in the state of the NAO is examined with a numerical simulation of the North Atlantic basin from 1980–1999. The North Atlantic basin is simulated using a 1/6°-resolution eddy-resolving Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) model that spins up with Southampton Oceanography Center (SOC) ocean-atmosphere atlas-derived atmospheric forcing fields. Model-derived EKE estimates are observed to be in good agreement with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter-based EKE estimates as well as with results from other modeling studies for the North Atlantic basin. We suggest that lateral movement of the GS may not be the primary mechanism causing variation in the rate of WCR occurrences, because GS position is observed to respond at a lag of one year, whereas annual rates of WCR occurrences respond at 0-year lag to the NAO. Based on results from numerical simulations of the North Atlantic basin, adjustment to NAO-induced wind forcing is seen to impact the GSR EKE intensity and possibly the related baroclinic instability structure of the GS at 0-year lag. These results suggest that NAO-induced interannual variability in GSR EKE is the most likely mechanism affecting WCR occurrences. Numerical simulations show that high (low) phases in the state of the NAO exhibit higher (lower) EKE in the GSR, providing a greater (lesser) source of baroclinic instability to the GS front, possibly resulting in higher (lower) occurrences of WCRs.