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Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
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| Authors: | E. A. G. Schuur B. W. Abbott W. B. Bowden V. Brovkin P. Camill J. G. Canadell J. P. Chanton F. S. Chapin III T. R. Christensen P. Ciais B. T. Crosby C. I. Czimczik G. Grosse J. Harden D. J. Hayes G. Hugelius J. D. Jastrow J. B. Jones T. Kleinen C. D. Koven G. Krinner P. Kuhry D. M. Lawrence A. D. McGuire S. M. Natali J. A. O’Donnell C. L. Ping W. J. Riley A. Rinke V. E. Romanovsky A. B. K. Sannel C. Schädel K. Schaefer J. Sky Z. M. Subin C. Tarnocai M. R. Turetsky M. P. Waldrop K. M. Walter Anthony K. P. Wickland C. J. Wilson S. A. Zimov |
| Affiliation: | 1. University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA 2. University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA 3. University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA 4. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany 5. Bowdoin College, Brunswick, ME, USA 6. Global Carbon Project CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia 7. Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA 8. Lund University, Lund, Sweden 9. LSCE, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France 10. Idaho State University, Pocatello, ID, USA 11. University of California, Irvine, CA, USA 12. US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, USA 13. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA 14. Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden 15. Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA 16. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley, CA, USA 17. CNRS/UJF-Grenoble 1, LGGE, Grenoble, France 18. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA 19. U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK, USA 20. Arctic Network, National Park Service, Fairbanks, AK, USA 21. Alfred Wegener Institute, Potsdam, Germany 22. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA 23. University of Oxford, Oxford, UK 24. AgriFoods, Ottawa, ON, Canada 25. University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada 26. U.S. Geological Survey, Boulder, CO, USA 27. Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA 28. North-East Scientific Station, Cherskii, Siberia |
| Abstract: | Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing. |
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