陕西春季沙尘暴预测方法分析

分析了陕西春季沙尘暴的变化趋势、突变和突变的可能原因以及影响陕西春季沙尘暴的环流特征量和其他要素;提出了预报思路,建立了预测概念模型和回归统计模型及其相应的业务流程,在春季沙尘暴趋势预测业务中应用,连续3 a预测结论正确。

Analyses on Prediction Method of Spring Sandstorms in Shannxi Province

The paper analyzed the temporal change trend, abrupt change and abrupt change reason of sandstorms occurring in spring in Shannxi Province, also analyzed the circulation characters and other factors effecting spring sandstorms in Shannxi Province. Then the prediction method was suggested, and the conceptual and regression models were established. The method was proved to be effective after continuously 3-year predicting practice applying with the models.