基于GIS和空间逻辑回归模型的城市空间扩展预测——以深圳市龙岗区为例

本文从土地利用的角度出发,分析了城市扩展的基本原理和过程,提出城市空间扩展直接原因在于城市发展对土地的需求,城市空间扩展预测可分为城市发展用地总体需求预测和空间扩展预测的观点,并采用优化组合预测模型对城市用地总体规模扩展进行建模,利用空间逻辑回归模型对空间分布扩展进行建模,两者共同构建了城市空间扩展预测模型,最后以深圳市龙岗区为例,进行了试验,验证了这种思路。

Urban spatial expansion forecast based on GIS & spatial logistic regression model——A ease study for Longgang, Shenzhen

From the point of land use,this paper analyzes the basic principle and process of urban expansion.It proposes that the direct reson for urban spatial expansion is land resource demand when urban development.It also indicates that urban spatial expansion forecast can divided into two parts,one is urban development land use overall requirement forecast,the other is spatial expansion forecast.Based on optimal combination forecast model,the overall scale expansion model of urban land use is constructed.And with spatial logistical regression model,the spatial distribution expansion is modeled.For an urban expansion study in Longgang,a district of Shenzhen,the two-sub model is presented for urban expansion forecasting.The results show that it is feasible and valuable.