CUSP突变模型在地壳形变和强震危险性判定中的应用

应用ＣＵＳＰ（尖角）突变模型研究了板内边界带地壳形变与强震的危险性判定及其预测的方法，并以鲜水河断裂带１９７３～１９８２年的动态大地测量和地震活动数据作了验证。结果表明：（１）强震前该断裂带地壳形变与蕴震系统经历了稳定平衡—不稳定平衡—稳定平衡—不稳定平衡—近于临界状态的过程。（２）系统的不稳定平衡状态在不同的观测点位具有同步性和持续性，且持续的时间与未来的地震强度有关。（３）预测未来事件发生的时间、震级、位移与实际发生的事件基本相符。

APPLICATION OF CUSP CATASTROPHIC MODEL TO HAZARD DECISION OF CRUSTAL DEFORMATION AND STRONG EARTHQUAKES

A method of hazard decision and prediction of crustal deformation and strong earthquakes in intraplate boundary zone is researched with CUSP catastrophic model in the paper. Taking the dynamic geodesy and seismicity data from 1973 to 1982 in Xianshuihe fault zone as examples, the method is confirmed. The results show:(1) The crustal deformation and seismogenic system in the fault zone experience the process of stable equilibrium-unstable equilibrium-stable equilibrium-unstable equilibrium-approaching critical states before strong earthquakes.(2)Unstable equilibrium state of the system has synchronism and continuity in different observation points, moreover,the continuing time of unstable equilibrium state is associated with the coming earthquake strength.(3)The prediction time,magnitude and displacement of coming events are generally cosistent with the real events.