黑河流域下游自然资源与社会经济耦合协调响应机制研究——以阿拉善盟额济纳旗为例

为研究近40 a黑河流域下游自然资源经济系统耦合协调过程和规律,以黑河流域下游阿拉善盟额济纳旗为研究对象,根据《额济纳旗统计年鉴》(1990—2015年)自然资源和社会经济相关数据,建立指标体系,进行综合发展水平研究,通过耦合协调度模型对研究区自然资源和社会经济耦合协调度进行分析,并对2020—2030年两者的耦合协调度进行预测。结果表明: 额济纳旗自然资源综合发展水平从1990年的0.160 0提高到2015年的0.811 5,增长趋向明显; 社会经济综合发展水平从1990年的0.115 0提高到2015年的0.713 8,也呈不断上升的趋势; 二者的综合发展水平曲线变化整体相似。自然资源与社会经济耦合协调程度呈上升趋势,由1990年的“重度失调经济损益型”历经“拮抗”“发展”“磨合”阶段转变为2015年的“高度协调发展同步型”。通过灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型,预测未来10 a两者耦合协调度将进一步提高。

Research on the response mechanism of coupling and coordination between natural resources and social economy in the Lower Heihe River Basin:A case study of Ejina Banner in Alxa League

In order to study the coupling and coordination process and laws between natural resources and social economy in the Lower Heihe River Basin in recent 40 years, the authors have taken Ejina Banner as the research object. According to the natural resources and social economy data in the Ejina Banner Statistical Yearbook (1990-2015), the authors have established an indicator system to study the comprehensive development level. The coupling and coordination degree between natural resources and social economy have been analyzed based on the coupling coordination degree model, and the coupling and coordination degree from 2020 to 2030 has been predicted. The results show that the comprehensive development level of natural resources in Ejina Banner has increased from 0.160 0 in 1990 to 0.811 5 in 2015 with an obvious increasing trend. The comprehensive development level of social economy has increased from 0.115 0 in 1990 to 0.713 8 in 2015, also with a continuous increasing trend. Overall, the comprehensive development level curves of the natural resources and social economy are similar. The degree of coupling and coordination between natural resources and social economy has shown an upward trend, which transferred from severely unbalanced economic gain and loss type in 1990 to highly coordinated development synchronization type in 2015, through the antagonistic, development and running-in phases. The coupling and coordination degree between natural resources and social economy would improve in the next 10 years, based on the prediction by the gray theory GM(1,1) model.