中尺度和云模式嵌套试验

利用嵌套Mesoscale Analysisand Process System（MAPS）模式提供离作业时间最近的湖北省77个县站大气层结状况，以弥补积云模式对于探空层结信息的需求；根据天气类型分析，获取湖北全省县站级一维积云模式初始扰动参数。20次嵌套试验统计表明：中尺度MAPS模式和积云模式的嵌套实现了多站点积云群的模拟，县站级降水预报和实际雨量偏差小于20％的站点数占到总数的58．2％；以2003年7月9日湖北省降水为例，利用嵌套模式对全省77个县站进行嵌套试验，结果表明：模式嵌套尤其有利于午后积云降水模拟，通过自然模拟计算和多站点积云群催化对比分析，能够较好地提供县站级增雨潜势量化预测。

Trial and Analysis of Meso- and Micro-scale Cloud Nesting Simulated Model

In the nesting model, the initial field is from the forecast field by the Mesoscale Analysis and Process System (MAPS) Model, which indicated the status of stratified atmosphere over 77 counties in Hubei Province. In the one- dimension cumulus model, the disturbance parameters are determined by the analysis of synoptic pattern. The non-catalyzed/catalyzed precipitation can be simulated with the nesting model, and the catalyzing potential of cumulus of the 77sites is obtained respectively.