2013年3—5月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

为了更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品,对2013年3—5月T639模式中期预报时效产品进行了天气学检验,并与:ECMWF、日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明:三家模式均对亚洲环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。综合看来,ECMWF模式对主要系统及气象要素的预报最接近实况;日本模式和T639模式次之。另外,选取了2013年3月8—9日的沙尘天气过程进行检验,发现ECMWF模式对于引发此次沙尘天气的地面高压系统中期预报指示意义最好。

Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecasting for T639,ECMWF and Japan Models from March to May 2013

In order to improve the ability to apply the products of T639, a synoptic verification on its medium range forecasting in Spring 2013 is made in comparison with the NWP of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that all the three models have good performances on the aspect of predicting the large scale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian. As a whole, the ECMWF model is better in forecasting most weather systems compared with the T639 and Japan models. Taking the sandstorm process during 8-9 March 2013 as a case, it is found that the ECMWF model is more effective than the other two models in medium range forecasting of the surface high pressure system that causes the sand and dust weather process this time.