滇西实验场及邻区前兆群体异常与成组中强震的关系

本文使用前兆群体异常信息提取的方法,即应用前兆群体非均匀度ID和前兆综合信息量S数学分析,以及相关计算软件,对滇西地震预报实验场及邻区(N24～28°,E98～102°)的断层形变和地下流体各种监测手段的多台项观测资料进行了系统计算分析。研究结果表明:多台多测项前兆群体异常的映震效果优于多台单测项前兆群体异常的应震效果;前兆群体异常与中强地震的对应关系较好,且一组前兆群体异常一般会对应2次以上中强地震,显示了前兆群体异常与地震成组对应关系,而不是以往单次前兆与单个地震一一对应关系。

Relationship Between Multi-discipline Precursory Group Anomalies and Medium Earthquakes in the Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Study Area (WYEPSA) and Its Adjacent Area

Using two kinds of precursory anomalies pick-up methods, namely precursory group inhomogeneous degree(ID) and precursory synthetic information(S), to systematically analyze crust deformation and underground water data observing in multi-station in WYEPSA and its adjacent area. The study gives out relationship between multi-discipline precursory group anomalies and medium earthquakes which is different from relationship between mono-discipline precursory anomaly and an earthquake. The results find better relationship between precursory group anomalies and medium earthquakes, and usually have 2 and above earthquakes following a precursory group anomalies; furthermore, corresponding rate between multi-discipline precursory group anomalies in multi-station and medium earthquakes is better than that between mono-discipline precursory group anomalies in multi-station and medium earthquakes.