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| A Modified Certainty Coefficient Method（M-CF） for Debris Flow Susceptibility Assessment：A Case Study for the Wenchuan Earthquake Meizoseismal Areas | |
| 作者姓名： | WANG Jun YU Yan YANG Shun LU Gui-hong OU Guo-qiang |
| 作者单位： | [1]Key Laboratory of Mountain hazards and Earth Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China; [2]Institute of Mountain hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China; [3]University of ChineseAcademy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
| 基金项目： | Financial support was provided by Ministry of Water Resources welfare industry funding(Grant No.201301058);Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Processes independent project funding:Dynamic process and buried risk of debris flow in Shenxi gully after Wenchuan earthquake;the international cooperation project of Ministry of Science and Technology(Grant No.2013DFA21720) |
| 摘 要： | In the meizoseismal areas hit by the China Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008, the disasterprone environment has changed dramatically, making the susceptibility assessment of debris flow more complex and uncertain. After the earthquake, debris flow hazards occurred frequently and effective susceptibility assessment of debris flow has become extremely important. Shenxi gully in Du Jiangyan city, located in the meizoseismal areas, was selected as the study area. Based on the research of disaster-prone environment and the main factors controlling debris flow, the susceptibility zonations of debris flow were mapped using factor weight method（FW）, certainty coefficient method（CF） and geomorphic information entropy method（GI）. Through comparative analysis, the study showed that these three methods underestimated susceptible degree of debris flow when used in the meizoseismal areas of Wenchuan earthquake. In order to solve this problem, this paper developed a modified certainty coefficient method（M-CF） to reflect the impact of rich loose materials on the susceptible degree of debris flow. In the modified method, the distribution and area of loose materials were obtained by field investigations and postearthquake remote sensing image, and four data sets, namely, lithology, elevation, slop and aspect, wereused to calculate the CF values. The result of M-CF method is in agreement with field investigations and the accuracy of the method is satisfied. The method has a wide application to the susceptibility assessment of debris flow in the earthquake stricken areas. |
| 关 键 词： | 泥石流灾害 敏感性评价 极震区 大地震 系数法 汶川 评估 易发程度 |
A modified certainty coefficient method (M-CF) for debris flow susceptibility assessment: A case study for the Wenchuan earthquake meizoseismal areas |
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| WANG Jun,YU Yan,YANG Shun,LU Gui-hong,OU Guo-qiang.A modified certainty coefficient method (M-CF) for debris flow susceptibility assessment: A case study for the Wenchuan earthquake meizoseismal areas[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2014,11(5):1286-1297. | |
| Authors: | Jun Wang Yan Yu Shun Yang Gui-hong Lu Guo-qiang Ou |
| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Mountain hazards and Earth Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, 610041, China 2. Institute of Mountain hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, 610041, China 3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China |
| Abstract: | In the meizoseismal areas hit by the China Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008, the disasterprone environment has changed dramatically, making the susceptibility assessment of debris flow more complex and uncertain. After the earthquake, debris flow hazards occurred frequently and effective susceptibility assessment of debris flow has become extremely important. Shenxi gully in Du Jiangyan city, located in the meizoseismal areas, was selected as the study area. Based on the research of disaster-prone environment and the main factors controlling debris flow, the susceptibility zonations of debris flow were mapped using factor weight method (FW), certainty coefficient method (CF) and geomorphic information entropy method (GI). Through comparative analysis, the study showed that these three methods underestimated susceptible degree of debris flow when used in the meizoseismal areas of Wenchuan earthquake. In order to solve this problem, this paper developed a modified certainty coefficient method (M-CF) to reflect the impact of rich loose materials on the susceptible degree of debris flow. In the modified method, the distribution and area of loose materials were obtained by field investigations and postearthquake remote sensing image, and four data sets, namely, lithology, elevation, slop and aspect, were used to calculate the CF values. The result of M-CF method is in agreement with field investigations and the accuracy of the method is satisfied. The method has a wide application to the susceptibility assessment of debris flow in the earthquake stricken areas. |
| Keywords: | Wenchuan earthquake Disaster-prone environment Debris flow Susceptibility assessment Modified certainty coefficient method(M-CF) |
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