南极冰盖物质平衡与海平面变化研究新进展

本文在简要介绍冰盖物质平衡及其对海平面影响的基础上，从整体法和分量法两个方面总结了南极冰盖物质平衡研究的最新进展，并分析了影响其物质平衡的不确定因素。研究表明，整个南极冰盖物质平衡呈现负增长的趋势，其中西南极Amundsen海湾附近的冰盖物质流失最为明显。另外，南极冰盖边缘的大部分地区还呈现变薄的趋势。南极冰盖物质流失是引起海平面上升的最大潜在因素之一，其冰架的缓冲作用、冰盖的不稳定性和冰盖底部融水的作用等不确定因素对南极冰盖物质平衡具有重要的影响。未来随着观测技术和数据处理技术的不断提高，南极冰盖物质平衡的估算及其不确定因素有望得到进一步的认识，从而为预测海平面的上升范围提供更多的理论和技术支撑。

THE LATEST RESEARCH PROGRESS ON ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET MASS BALANCE AND SEA LEVEL CHANGE

On the basis of a brief introduction to the mass balance of the ice sheet and its effect on sea level, recent studies on the mass balance of Antarctic ice sheet were reviewed from two aspects, including integrated method and flux component method, and then the uncertainties affecting the mass balance were analyzed. A pattern of mass loss from Antarctica was indicated in the studies, and the mass loss near the Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctic ice sheet was the most obvious. In addition, there was extensive dynamic thinning on many margins of the ice sheet. The mass loss of Antarctic ice sheet is the largest potential contributor to sea level rise. The ice shelf buttressing, the instability of the ice sheet and the function of subglacial meltwater are important to Antarctic mass balance. As observation techniques and data processing technology constantly improve in future, the mass balance estimates and the uncertainties which affect Antarctic ice sheet are expected to be further understood. Furthermore, more theoretical and technical supports will be provided to predict the range of sea level rise.