基于小波分析的抚松县降水量变化对矿泉水资源量的响应研究

大气降水是抚松县矿泉水资源的重要补给来源,探究其变化规律及极值概率对泉流量是否能够得到持续补给具有重要意义。为此,首先利用1960~2013年的降水资料和1981~2008年部分泉流量观测数据,对抚松县降水量的年内分配、年际变化和不同年代降水量均值变化进行降水特征分析;之后,运用皮尔逊Ⅲ型模型分析最大年降水量的概率分布;接着,利用1981年7月~2008年11月期间降水量和部分泉的泉流量监测数据,采用连续小波分析法对二者周期进行分析;最后,运用交叉小波变换法对同一时段内降水量和泉流量多时间尺度变化的相关性进行分析。结果表明:1960~2013年的54间,研究区内年降水量呈现周期性变化,变差系数为1.017×10-17,降水稳定,未发生异常变化。降水量和泉流量均存在约11个月的主震荡周期,二者属于同相位(即泉流量对降水量的变化产生即刻反应),降水量作为本区矿泉水补给的重要影响因素,可为矿泉水资源得到有效补给提供保证。

Response of Mineral Water Resources to Precipitation Change Based on Wavelet Analysis in Fusong County

Precipitation is an important recharge source for springs in Fusong County. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the change regulation and extreme value probability of precipitation for continuous replenishment of spring. For this, firstly, based on the precipitation data during 1960-2013 and spring discharge data during 1981-2008, the distribution characteristics of precipitation were analyzed through the calculation of the mean precipitation value in a year and between different years; Next, Pearson III model was used to analyze the distribution of the largest precipitation probability; And then, the wavelet analysis was used to analyze the annual precipitation power spectrum, extracting precipitation period between the year 1960 and 2013 at the same time; At last, the cross wavelet method was used to analyze period relation between the amount of mineral water resources and precipitation. The results show that during the 54 years between 1960 and 2013, annual precipitation had a period change, and the variation coefficient is 1.017*10-17, which reflect the precipitation is stable, with no abnormal changes. The main oscillation period of precipitation and spring discharge are both approximately 11 months, and both of them shared the same phase (the spring discharge having an immediate reaction with the change of precipitation). As an important recharge factor for the mineral water in the study area, precipitation can effectively guarantee the supply of mineral water resources