气候变化对淮河蒙洼蓄滞洪区启用风险影响评估

基于RCP情景下47个IPCC CMIP5气候模式模拟数据和大尺度水文模型VIC，预估了未来（2021-2050年）气候变化对淮河蒙洼蓄滞洪区启用的可能影响。结果表明：与基准期（1971-2000年）相比，多模式预估淮河上游未来多年平均气温一致呈增加趋势，平均增幅范围0.2～1.7℃。不同模式对降水预估差异较大，但有超过70%的模式预估降水呈增加趋势，平均增幅为3.4%～4.1%。未来气候情景下，王家坝断面洪水总体呈增加趋势，20年一遇的洪水强度平均增幅19%，洪水频率将增大，蒙洼蓄滞洪区启用可能更加频繁，启用的风险加大。

Assessing Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Risk of Using the Mengwa Flood Detention Area in Huaihe River Basin

Based on 47 global climate models within World Climate Research Program’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the VIC (variable infiltration capacity) model, possible risk of using the Mengwa flood detention area for flood control in Huaihe River basin under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios for the period of 2021-2050 was assessed in this study. The results show that, relative to 1971-2000, multiple models consistently project the mean annual temperature increase by 0.2-1.7℃. Although there is considerable uncertainty in projected precipitation, the projected changes in mean annual precipitation by more than 70% models have positive trends and range from 3.4% to 4.1%. The projected 20-year return flood at the Wangjiaba station is likely increased by 19%. More frequent floods due to future climate change may increase the times of using the Mengwa flood detention area for flood control.