北极航道海运货流类型及其规模研究

从北极海运货源角度出发，根据北极贸易、油气开发以及远东-西北欧、远东-北美东部当前海运货量状况，分析得出未来北极航道主要货物类型和规模的最大理论值为：（1）从俄罗斯、北欧北极地区到远东的液化天然气单向贸易流型式，到2030年，为1 000万t；（2）从远东到欧美的集装箱货物双向贸易流型式，北极东北航道、中央航道分担远东到西北欧航线的货运量，北极西北航道分担远东到北美东部的货运量，如果技术上能够低成本保障全季航行，按分担传统运河航线50%计算，到2030年，北极航道集装箱货运规模最大值约为1 743万TEU，是2011年传统运河航线的85%。由此得出结论：近中期东北航道天然气运输占据主要地位，但对北极航道更大运输需求是集装箱运输。此外，本文还比较了北极航道与运河航线的成本。

A STUDY ON SCALE AND SCOPE OF MARITIME CARGOES THROUGH THE ARCTIC PASSAGES

This paper analyzes the source of goods travelling through the Arctic passages, and examines trades generated from the Arctic area, including oil and gas exploitation. Furthermore, it assesses the present situation for maritime cargo, which travels from the Far East to both Northwestern Europe, and North America. Two main types of cargo that will go through the Arctic passages in the future are identified. First, about 10 million tons of cargo will travel from Russia and the Nordic Arctic area to the Far East in a one-way trade flow of Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG) by 2030. Second, there are the two-way trade flows of containerized cargo from the Far East to Europe and the United States through the Northeast Passage, the central Passage and the Northwest Passage. This cargo will travel through the arctic area, to relieve pressure on their present routes from the Far East to North-Western Europe and North America. Therefore, the Northwest Passage could share cargo routes from the Far East to the United States. If navigation is technically possible in all seasons, with lower cost ships as ordinary ones,and assuming to sharing traditional canal routes 50%,By 2030, the maximum amount of container freight that will go through the Arctic passages should be approximately 17.43 million TEUs, which is 85% of the traditional canal routes in 2011. The conclusion drawn from this is: in the near future gas transportation in the Northeast Passage will play a major role, and but for transit shipping,more shipping demand for Arctic sea routes will be container transpotation. The shipping costs between by using the Arctic passages and by using the traditional canal routes are also compared in the paper.