中国海洋旅游安全事故时空特征分析

为预防和减少海洋旅游安全事故，运用卡方列联表分析与残差检验、时间强度指数、地理集中指数和不平衡指数分析中国海洋旅游安全事故的类型、特征与时空分布规律。研究发现：1）中国海洋旅游安全事故类型主要分为溺水、被困、交通事故、自杀、意外受伤、动物咬伤、疾病突发、火灾、食物中毒等9种。2）事故发生的主导因素存在类型差异，涉事旅游者个体特征、旅游活动与事故发生的关联性较高。3）事故在大（年）、中（月）、小（日）时间尺度分布呈现差异性和集中性。事故发生数量呈上升趋势，7―8月为高发期，5―6、10月为次发期，下午（T 14:00―18:00）为一日高发时段，上午（T 08:00―12:00）和晚上（T 18:00―21:00）为一日次发时段。4）事故在大（海洋旅游圈）、小（海洋旅游城市）、微（海洋旅游活动点）空间尺度分布呈现聚集性和不平衡性。其中，大空间尺度集中在闽台海峡西岸区域和环渤海区域，小尺度（闽台海峡西岸区域为例）集中在厦门、泉州和福州，微尺度集中在沙滩、海礁与海上区域。因此，建议从高发事故类型及其发生特征、时空分布规律等方面强化安全防控与监管工作，预防和减少海洋旅游安全事故发生。

Spatial and Temporal Distributions of Chinese Marine Tourism Safety Accidents

To prevent and decrease the number of marine tourism safety accidents, Chinese marine tourism safety accidents were studied using a chi-square contingency table analysis, residual test, time intensity index, geographic concentration index, and imbalance index. Accordingly, suggestions for marine tourism safety management were proposed. The types, characteristics, timing, and spatial distribution laws of Chinese marine tourism accidents from 2010 to 2021 were analyzed. We obtained the following results. 1) The type of Chinese marine tourism safety accidents included drowning, being trapped, traffic accidents, suicide, accidental injuries, animal bites, disease outbreaks, fires, and food poisoning. 2) There were differences in the leading causes of different types of accidents. Thus, tourists with different individual characteristics may experience different types of accidents, and different tourist activities may cause different types of accidents. 3) Chinese marine tourism safety accidents showed differences in the type and frequency in different years, months, and times of day. On a large time scale (annual), the number of accidents showed an increasing trend. On a medium time scale (month), accidents occurred most frequently in July-August, May-June and October followed, whereas on a micro time scale (hour), accidents occurred most frequently in the afternoon (T 14:00-18:00), the morning (T 08:00-12:00), and the evening (T 18:00-21:00) followed. 4) Chinese marine tourism accidents were aggregated and imbalanced in marine tourism circles, cities, and points. The large spatial scale was concentrated in regions across the West coast of Fujian and Taiwan Strait and the Bohai Rim; the small spatial scale was concentrated in Xiamen, Quanzhou, and Fuzhou; and the micro spatial scale was concentrated in the nodes of the beach, reef, and sea. Based on these findings, the management of high-incidence accidents should focus on precise and efficient safety management based on the leading causes, individual characteristics, and activities of tourists involved in accidents. Moreover, safety prevention and supervision should be carried out at important time and space nodes according to the timing and spatial distribution laws of accidents.