中国金融抑制水平测度及时空动态演变特征

以2001~2015年中国30个省级面板数据为研究样本,借鉴现有研究成果测算区域性金融抑制水平,运用核密度和动态度分析其时空演化规律,通过GIS技术采用四分位数分类方法展现其演化过程。研究表明：① 经济危机对区域金融抑制水平具有正向冲击作用,被冲击区域主要是经济相对不发达地区;经济危机时期的区域金融抑制水平存在一定的“马太效应”。② 经济危机过后,政府政策使得各地金融发展水平逐渐恢复,金融抑制水平逐渐缓解;然而政府对金融发展的政策性支持具有局限性,降低金融抑制水平需逐步提高金融市场化程度,依靠市场促进金融发展。③ 依据经济危机前后金融抑制水平变化对比,尝试性提出金融抑制水平可作为宏观经济运行趋势的风向标。

The Measurement of Financial Repression Level and the Characteristics of Spatial-temporal Dynamic Evolution in China

While China joined to WTO, under the joint action of economic crisis and accelerating the pace of opening up, the evolution process of China’s financial repression level has been changing. This paper takes 30 provincial-level panel data (not including data of Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2001 to 2015 as the research sample, calculates the regional financial repression level by referring to the existing research results, analyzes its temporal and spatial evolution law by using nuclear density and dynamic degree, and displays its evolution process by using quartile classification method through GIS technology. The research shows that: 1) The economic crisis has a positive impact on the level of regional financial restraining, and the areas under impact are mainly economically less developed areas, and there is a certain "Matthew effect" in the level of regional financial restraining during the period of economic crisis. 2) After the economic crisis, the government policy has gradually restored the level of financial development and gradually relieved the level of financial restraint; however, the government’s policy support for financial development is limited, and the reduction of financial restraining level needs to gradually increase the degree of financial marketization and rely on the market to promote the level of financial development. 3) According to the contrast of the level of financial suppression before and after the economic crisis, it is tried to put forward that the rise of financial restraining level is likely to predict the trend of economic downtrend. On this basis, it puts forward pertinent suggestions for reasonably controlling the level of financial restraint. Firstly, local governments should weigh the advantages and disadvantages of financial restraint and economic development, and implement appropriate financial restraint policies while maintaining healthy and stable economic development. Secondly, after 2012, China’s regional financial restraint level is relatively stable, but the economy has maintained a sustained growth state, so we can appropriately liberalize the supervision of financial institutions and the financial system, gradually reduce the level of financial restraint, steadily promote financial liberalization reform, as an opportunity to reduce the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises. Cost of capital, to achieve the financial services for the real economy, the national economy as a whole to achieve a new round of development. Thirdly, the local financial development can not only rely on the supervision and support of government policies, but also need to play the role of the market; while correctly interpreting the central financial development policy, the local characteristics, government policies and market conditions should be fully combined to develop and play the role of local financial characteristics, to achieve the financial field and the real economy. The fields complement each other and develop at the same time. Fourthly, according to the changes of financial restraint level before and after the economic crisis, this article tentatively puts forward that the financial restraint level can be used as a wind vane to judge the trend of economic operation. The government should grasp the trend of financial restraint as appropriate. When the financial restraint level presents an upward trend, the government should timely understand the trend of macroeconomic operation, through macro view control, prevent and weaken the adverse consequences that may lead to the economic crisis.