| 华北地区地震空区的统计分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王霞,宋美琴,陈慧.华北地区地震空区的统计分析[J].地震,2019,39(3):187-195. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王霞 宋美琴 陈慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 山西省地震局,山西太原,030021;山西省地震局,山西太原,030021;山西省地震局,山西太原,030021 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1500502-01); 2017年度和2019年度震情跟踪专项工作任务(2017010109, 2019010106); 山西省科技攻关项目(20140313023-1, 20150313016-2); 基本科研业务专项(2017IES010105) |
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| 摘 要： | 对华北地区1970—2017年出现的地震空区采用统一的识别标准进行全时空清理研究, 结果表明, 华北地区M≥5地震前出现空区的比例为36.7%, 且华北地区ML≥3.0地震空区的持续时间与主震震级存在一定的线性正相关关系, 但长轴尺度、 起始震级与主震震级的线性关系不明显; 报准率为0.76, 虚报率为0.24, 漏报率为0.60, R值为0.32, 高于具有97.5%置信水平的R0值, 表明地震空区这种预测方法在华北地区具有较好的预报效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震空区 华北地区 M≥5.0地震 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-03-25 |
Statistical Analysis of Seismic Gap in North China |
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| WANG Xia,SONG Mei-qin,CHEN Hui.Statistical Analysis of Seismic Gap in North China[J].Earthquake,2019,39(3):187-195. |
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| Authors: | WANG Xia SONG Mei-qin CHEN Hui |
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| Institution: | Earthquake Administration of Shanxi Province, Taiyuan 030021, China |
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| Abstract: | The seismic gaps in North China from 1970 to 2017 are analyzed using the unified identification criteria. The result shows that seismic gap before M≥5.0 earthquakes is 36.7% in North China. The relationship between the duration time of M≥3.0 earthquake has a certain linear positive correlation with the magnitude of main shock. However, the long axis scale, the initial magnitude and the main-shock magnitude don't have obvious linear relationship. The accuracy rate of seismic gap is 0.76, the false rate is 0.24, the missing rate is 0.60, and the R value is 0.32. R value is higher than R0 value with 97.5% confidence level. It indicates that the prediction method of seismic gap has certain forecast capability in North China. |
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| Keywords: | Seismic gap North China M≥5 0 earthquakes |
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