丝绸之路经济带核心区新型城镇化驱动因素量化分析与对策——基于LASSO的变量筛选

在“一带一路”与新型城镇化两大体系融合的背景下，新疆作为丝绸之路经济带核心区，其城镇化的健康发展不仅关系着新疆社会稳定、长治久安与经济的可持续发展，同时对“一带一路”建设起到支撑作用。影响新型城镇化发展的因素众多，采用LASSO方法从可能影响新疆新型城镇化发展的经济贸易、基础设施、社会保障、政府制度、教育科技、医疗卫生、金融发展、人民生活、人口就业、民族文化、资源环境、能源消耗以及兵团建设13个方面选取64个驱动因子进行量化分析，依据模型压缩系数实现指标精简。对各因素的影响效果进行分析，从基础设施建设、兵地融合、参与“一带一路”建设、对口援疆以及水资源利用方面给出推进丝绸之路经济带核心区新型城镇化发展的对策与建议。

Quantitative analysis of new-type urbanization driving factors and countermeasures in the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt: Based on LASSO screening method

Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative, there has been more and more cooperation and exchanges between China and countries along the route. Xinjiang, China is the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Urbanization is both an objective trend of economic development and an effective driving force for economic growth. Scholars have studied the urbanization development of countries and regions along the Belt and Road. Xinjiang’s new-type urbanization is an important means to ensure sustainable economic development and social stability and also provides solid support for the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt. As a western frontier region, Xinjiang’s new urbanization construction has its own characteristics. Based on the previous scholars’ research, we have chosen a large number of factors influencing the construction of new-type urbanization, which contain unique factors in Xinjiang. The LASSO method is adopted to analyze 64 factors from 13 aspects which may affect the development of new-type urbanization in Xinjiang. The index is reduced by the compression coefficient of the model. According to the screening of driving factors by LASSO, this paper analyzes the driving factors of Xinjiang’s new urbanization construction. Through the analysis of these types of factors, the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the construction of new-type urbanization in Xinjiang are given. The specific content includes the following five parts. The first part is the construction of advanced infrastructure, and the role of infrastructure in the development of new urbanization in Xinjiang. The second part is to strengthen the integration and development of the XPCC (Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps) city and the surrounding cities, and play the radiating and driving role of the XPCC in the belt. The third part is to actively participate in the “Belt and Road” and build an open urban system to give play to the leading role of the market. The fourth part is to make use of policies of “the counterpart support and construction from the other provinces” to promote the development of new urbanization in Xinjiang. The fifth part is that water resources have a restrictive effect on the development of new urbanization in Xinjiang. We need to build a water-saving city.