居住选择对流动人口城市居留意愿的影响——基于一项对福建省流动人口的调查

采用2015年福建省流动人口抽样调查数据,使用序次回归模型,系统分析由住房产权类型、居住区位、居住家庭化程度和住房支付能力衡量的居住选择如何影响流动人口的城市居留意愿。结果发现：当将长期居住意愿、户籍迁移意愿和永久定居意愿3部分指标的加和定义为城市居留意愿指标时,流动人口在城市居留意愿远低于预期,真正愿意将长期居住、户籍迁移、永久定居三者统一起来的流动人口不足二成。回归模型结果表明,居住选择的确对流动人口的城市居留意愿产生显著影响,在控制流动人口的个人、家庭特征和流动状况等变量后,拥有住房所有权、居住在中心城区、与家人一起居住和更高的住房支付能力的流动人口,更愿意在城市永久定居。

The Impacts of Housing Conditions on Migrants’ Settlement Intention in the Cities: Evidence from Fujian Province

China’s floating population is the biggest mobile population in the world. Most of its members are still not able to settle down and be fully integrated into the destination cities, and a growing body of literature has been devoted to understanding their settlement intention and its determinants in such a context. Housing greatly influences the settlement of both internal and international migrants. Nevertheless, within the growing body of literature, far less attention has been devoted to the role of housing conditions in migrant settlement in cities. In addition, the rise of housing marketization has broadened housing choices for migrants, encouraging settlement intention to be a more complicated process. However, few studies have addressed the diverse patterns of settlement intention under the interaction of institutional constraints and housing marketization. This study goes beyond this limitation and investigates how housing conditions measured by ownership, location, residential pattern and housing affordability affect rural migrant urban settlement intentions. Using the data from a migrant survey in Fujian Province in 2015, we first utilize a composite index consisting of three dimensions to measure migrants’ settlement intention, namely, long-term residence intention, permanent settlement intention, and hukou transfer intention. And then using the ordered logistic regression model, we explore the impacts of housing ownership, housing location, residential pattern and housing affordability on migrants’ settlement intention. The results show that: 1) The overall level of migrants’ permanent settlement intention is not high in the China’s cities, which is not strong as suspected in public debates. 2) The rate of the “High” degree of migrants’ settlement intention increases as the housing conditions level and their housing affordability increase. 3) After controlling for the effects of individual characteristics, migration patterns, migrants’ housing conditions play a critical role in affecting their settlement intention. With owner housing strongly promote migrants’ settlement intention, and migrants living in the central city are more likely to settle down in the cities than their counterparts in the suburbs. Furthermore, lower degrees of housing expenditure-income ratio have significant negative effect on the migrants’ permanent settlement intention. Meanwhile, migrants living with their family members are more likely to settle down in the cities than those living alone. Based on the above findings, we suggest that housing should be integrated into relevant policy making in China’s current efforts to boost migrants’ permanent settlement. For example, instead of granting urban hukou status, an open housing market with more eligible and affordable housing access would provide a broad channel for permanent settlement, which is the preference of rural migrants.