基于Logistic回归模型的内蒙古多伦县土地沙漠化驱动力分析

以内蒙古多伦县1960、1975、1987、1995、2000、2005年的土地沙漠化矢量数据及2010年2015年的遥感影像、地形图为主要数据来源，运用NEVI5.0和ArcGIS10.2软件提取8个时期土地沙漠化空间信息，划分为轻度沙漠化、中度沙漠化、重度沙漠化、严重沙漠化等不同类型进行时空分异特征分析。结合研究区实际情况，选取海拔高程、年均气温、降水量、平均风速、牲畜数量、第一产业、居民点距离等统计数据，运用Logistic回归模型定量分析了土地沙漠化动力机制，为京津风沙源区防治土地沙漠化，改善生态环境提供科学理论依据。结果表明：1960-2015年间多伦县土地沙漠化面积呈减少趋势，其中1960年到1995年间呈发展趋势，1995-2015年间呈减少趋势；1960-1995年间各类土地沙漠化增长的主导因子是第一产业和居民点距离；而在1995-2015年间影响各类土地沙漠化的主导因子是降水量、牲畜数量、第一产业和居民点距离。今后，继续控制牲畜数量、实施土地沙漠化治理政策来逆转土地沙漠化发展。

Analysis of Driving Forces on Land Desertification in Duolun County Inner Mongolia Based on Logistic Regress Model

Abstract：Taking the desertification vector data of 1960, 1975, 1987, 1995, 2000 and 2005 in Duolun County of Inner Mongolia and the remote sensing images and topographic maps of 2010 in 2010 as the main data sources, using ENVI5.0 and ArcGIS10.2 software to extract the spatial information of desertification in 8 periods, the characteristics of desertification in different desertification types such as mild desertification, moderate desertification, serious desertification and severe desertification were analyzed in spatial and temporal differences. According to the actual situation of the study area, statistical data such as elevation, average annual temperature, precipitation, average wind speed, number of livestock, primary industry and residential area were selected. Logistic regression model was used to quantitatively analyze the dynamic mechanism of desertification, It provides scientific basis for preventing desertification and improving ecological environment. The results showed that the area of desertification in Duolun County decreased from 1960 to 2015, with a tendency of development from 1960 to 1995 and a decreasing trend from 1995 to 2015. The dominant factor of various types of desertification growth was from 1960 to 1995 Industry and residential areas; and in 1995-2015 the dominant factor affecting various types of land desertification is precipitation, livestock, primary industry and residential distance.Duolun County is located in the desert and steppe transitional zone, ecological background is more fragile, agricultural production conditions change more frequently, the process of desertification induced by human factors at a high level of intensity, nearly half a century to promote the change of land desertification in Duolun County The main driving force for the human factor. In the future, we will continue to control the number of livestock and implement the policy of desertification control to reverse the development of land desertification.