| 气候变化背景下玛纳斯河流域绿洲适宜规模研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王静,刘海隆,王玲.气候变化背景下玛纳斯河流域绿洲适宜规模研究[J].干旱区地理,2019,42(1):113-120. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王静 刘海隆 王玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子,832000;电子科技大学资源与环境学院,四川成都,610054;西华大学理学院土木建筑与环境学院,四川 成都,610039 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然基金项目（51569027），新疆重大科技专项（2016A03008-4），兵团空间信息创新团队（2016AB021）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 近年来干旱区人工绿洲规模不断扩大造成水资源日益紧张，其可持续利用面临新的挑战。为宏观调控水资源提供依据，本文基于水热平衡原理，以干旱区典型绿洲玛纳斯河流域为研究区，采用2000、2005、2010和2015年的水文气象资料和各年（6~8月）TM遥感影像数据，分析了玛纳斯河流域在温室气体中、高排放（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）两种气候情景下，以及理想绿洲结构（AbdEI-Ghani）、现有绿洲结构两种绿洲分布情景下的绿洲适宜规模。研究结果显示：玛纳斯河流域2005、2010、2015年实际绿洲面积分别为2000年实际绿洲面积的109%，114.91%，92.39%；2005、2010、2015年适宜绿洲面积分别为2000年适宜绿洲面积的111.39%，118.8%，115.39%。2020年和2030年的结果对比发现，相同气候情景下AbdEI-Ghani绿洲结构的适宜绿洲面积低于现状结构下的绿洲面积，表明如果按照现状趋势发展，绿洲表现出过度开发的趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 绿洲适宜规模 可持续发展 玛纳斯绿洲 |
The suitable oasis scale in Manas River Basin in the context of climate change |
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| WANG Jing,LIU Hai-long,WANG Ling.The suitable oasis scale in Manas River Basin in the context of climate change[J].Arid Land Geography,2019,42(1):113-120. |
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| Authors: | WANG Jing LIU Hai-long WANG Ling |
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| Institution: | 1.College of water Conservancy and ArchitecturalEngineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, Xinjiang, China;2.School of Resources and Environment, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731,Sichuan,China;3.College of architecture and civil environment, Xihua University, Chengdu 611731, Sichuan,China |
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| Abstract: | The increasingly extending of the scale of the artificial oasis has strained the water resources which has made the sustainable utilization of water resources a challenge. Based on the principle of the Water and Heat Balance, the suitable scale of oasis in the Manasi River Basin under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two oasis structure distribution scenarios were analyzed using the hydro-meteorological data and the corresponding remotely sensed TM images in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 in the study region. The results show that the actual oasis area of Manasi River Basin in 2005, 2010 and 2015 was 109%, 114.91%, 92.39% of the actual oasis area in 2000，respectively. The suitable oasis area in 2005, 2010 and 2015 can be 111.39%, 118.8%, 115.39% of the oasis area in 2000 respectively. The oasis area of AbdEI-Ghani oasis structure in 2020 and 2030 was lower than that of the same year based on the current situation，which indicated that the oasis had a trend of overexploitation according to the development of the present situation. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Human activities Sustainable development Manasi oasis |
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