基于卫星遥感的临沂市冬小麦种植时空变化特征分析

以临沂地区为研究区，基于Terra/MOD13Q1遥感植被数据产品，通过分析冬小麦的遥感光谱特征、物候历特征及其生物学特性，提取2009—2019年临沂地区冬小麦种植信息，利用GIS空间分析方法和统计分析方法分析了临沂冬小麦种植的时空分布变化规律。结果显示：1）空间上，近10年来临沂地区冬小麦种植面积在2 800～3 000 km2之间浮动，占整个地区土地面积的17%左右，总体变化较小，种植区域呈南多北少的分布格局，主要集中在兰陵、临沭和郯城；2）从冬小麦种植稳定度上看，连续种植冬小麦10 a及以上的区域，主要集中在兰陵和郯城，面积为1 638 km2，稳定度高，连续种植小于4 a的区域有1 914 km2，主要分布在莒南和费县，种植不稳定；3）时间上，冬小麦面积由2009年的2 838 km2增加到2019年的2 985 km2，变化幅度和年均变化率分别为5.5%和0.5%，呈缓慢增加趋势。本研究为临沂地区冬小麦种植的深入了解以及农业结构调整提供了较为准确、科学的参考依据。

Spatio-temporal evolution of winter wheat planting in Linyi based on satellite remote sensing data

Based on Terra/MOD13Q1 remote sensing vegetation data in Linyi, the planting information of winter wheat in Linyi from 2009 to 2019 is extracted by analyzing the remote sensing spectral characteristics, phenological calendar characteristics, and biological characteristics of winter wheat. The spatiotemporal distribution of winter wheat in Linyi is analyzed using GIS spatial analysis and statistical analysis methods. The results are shown below. 1) In terms of space, the planting area of winter wheat in Linyi fluctuates between 2 800 km2 and 3 000 km2 in the recent decade with little change on the whole, accounting for about 17% of the land area of the whole region. The planting area shows a distribution pattern of more in the south and less in the north, and is mainly concentrated in Lanling, Linshu, and Tancheng. 2) In terms of the stability of winter wheat planting, high stability areas where winter wheat has been planted for a decade or above are mainly concentrated in Lanling and Tancheng with a total area of 1 638 km2. Lower stability areas where winter wheat has been planted continuously for less than 4 a are mainly distributed in Junan and Feixian with a total area of 1 914 km2. 3) In terms of time, the area of winter wheat increases from 2 838 km2 in 2009 to 2 985 km2 in 2019, and the range and annual mean rate of change are 5.5% and 0.5%, respectively, showing a slowly increasing trend. This study provides a rather accurate and scientific reference for the investigation of winter wheat planting and the adjustment of agricultural structure in Linyi.