| 十一运会期间雷电灾害风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱桂林,李永果,李燕.十一运会期间雷电灾害风险评估[J].气象科技,2010,38(Z1):93-96. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱桂林 李永果 李燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省济宁市气象局，济宁 272037;山东省济宁市气象局，济宁 272037;山东省济宁市气象局，济宁 272037 |
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| 摘 要： | 对1959—2008年10月山东各地雷电日数进行了分析,以山东的地貌特征、雷电发生的频率、人口密度和十一运会赛事场馆所在区域为评价因子,采用模糊数学方法分别计算出不同区域的孕灾环境敏感度、灾害发生的危险性和城市脆弱性3种指数,建立了山东地区十一运会期间雷电灾害风险评估模型,并在此基础上客观地划分等级,最后得到了山东地区十一运会期间雷电灾害的风险分级及其区划。
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| 关 键 词： | 十一运会 雷电灾害 风险评估模型 风险分级 风险区划 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010/7/15 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010/10/8 0:00:00 |
Risk Assessment of Lightning Disasters in 11th Chinese National Games |
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| Zhu Guilin,Li Yongguo and Li Yan.Risk Assessment of Lightning Disasters in 11th Chinese National Games[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2010,38(Z1):93-96. |
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| Authors: | Zhu Guilin Li Yongguo and Li Yan |
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| Institution: | Jining Meteorological Buearu, Shandong Province, Jining 272037;Jining Meteorological Buearu, Shandong Province, Jining 272037;Jining Meteorological Buearu, Shandong Province, Jining 272037 |
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| Abstract: | The number of lightning days in Shandong in October from 1959 to 2008 is analyzed. Based on the landform characteristics of Shandong Province, the frequency of lightning, the density of population in Shandong, and sports events of the 11th Chinese National Games, by means of the fuzzy mathematic method, the sensitivities of disaster environment, the risks of disasters occurrence, and the vulnerabilities of the city for different areas are calculated, and the risk assessment model of lightning in Shandong for the 11th Chinese National Games is established. Whereby the grades are divided objectively, and the risk grades and regionalization for the 11th Chinese National Games in Shandong are obtained. |
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| Keywords: | National Games lightning disaster risk assessment risk grade risk regionalization |
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