冬奥张家口赛区降雪天气分型及其预报概念模型研究

利用冬奥张家口赛〖JP3〗区云顶和古杨树两个赛场的地面加密站网观测资料和高空探测资料、ERA5的0.25°×0.25°〖JP〗高分辨率再分析资料，从降雪时空分布特征、高低空环流形势配置等对2019年和2020年冬季（11月至次年2月）张家口赛区的降雪过程进行天气学统计分析。结果表明：降雪天气的环流背景主要归纳为3个类型，分别是低涡气旋型、冷锋型和西北气流型。不同天气模型下降雪量时空分布具有典型特点，低涡气旋型过程平均降雪量最大，降雪持续时间长，云顶赛场比古杨树赛场降雪量多16.9%；冷锋型过程平均降雪量次之，云顶赛场比古杨树赛场降雪量多44.4%；西北气流型过程平均降雪量最少，持续时间短，但是两个赛场差异最大，云顶赛场比古杨树赛场降雪量多140%。

Research on Snowfall Weather and Forecast Concept Model in Zhangjiakou Competition Area of 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games

Based on the AWS (Automatic Weather Stations) data, the sounding data of two arenas (Genting Snow Park and Guyangshu Cluster) in the Zhangjiakou competition area of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games, and the ECMWF ERA5 global 0.25°×0.25° reanalysis data in the winter of 2019 and 2020 (November to next February), the characteristics of the temporal and spatial distribution of snowfall and the circulation patterns in the Zhangjiakou competition area are analyzed. This study isolates the distinct synoptic types of snowfall into three patterns: low vortex cyclone, cold front, and northwest airflow. The amount and duration of snowfall are distinct from one synoptic pattern to another. The low vortex cyclone pattern causes the heaviest snowfall and the longest duration among the three patterns. The snowfall amount in Genting Snow Park is 16.9% larger than that in Guyangshu Cluster. The mean snowfall amount caused by the cold front pattern takes second place. Under this condition, the snowfall amount in Genting Snow Park is 44.4% larger than that in Guyangshu Cluster. The northwest airflow pattern results in the least snowfall amount and shortest duration, but the largest difference between the two clusters is that the snowfall amount in Genting Snow Park is 140% larger than that in Guyangshu Cluster.