基于层次分析法的朔黄铁路暴雨灾害风险评估

选取2016—2020年朔黄铁路沿线40套自动气象站降水资料，结合周边国家站区域站近15年资料、行政区县地理信息、社会经济信息等，基于ArcGis技术，采用层次分析法等方法，从暴雨灾害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性3类因子构建了朔黄铁路暴雨灾害风险区划模型，并绘制了朔黄铁路暴雨灾害综合风险区划图。结果表明：朔黄铁路沿线暴雨灾害风险划分为高、次高、中、低4个等级，整体呈东部高于西部；4个高风险段与朔黄沿线各工务段收集的暴雨高发信息基本一致，该研究成果对于朔黄铁路暴雨灾害预报预警具有较好的参考作用。

Risk Zoning of Rainstorm Disaster along Shuohuang Railway Based on Meteorological Geography Method

Based on the precipitation data of automatic weather stations along Shuohuang Railway from 2016 to 2020, combined with the geographical information and socioeconomic information of administrative districts and counties, the risk zoning model of Shuohuang Railway rainstorm disasters is constructed by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), expert scoring method and weighted comprehensive evaluation method from four factors: the risk of rainstorm disaster, the sensitivity of disaster pregnant environment, the vulnerability of bearing body and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation. The comprehensive risk zoning map of the rainstorm disaster on the Shuohuang Railway is drawn. The results show that: the rainstorm disaster risk along the Shuohuang Railway is divided into four grades: high, secondary high, medium and low, and the risk in the East is higher than that in the West. The four high risk sections are basically consistent with the high frequency rainstorm information collected in each work section along the Shuohuang Railway. The results will play a good role in decision making on risk prevention.