Modelling for prediction of global deforestation based on the growth of human population |
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| Authors: | Krishna Pahari Shunji Murai |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Barts and The London School of Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK;2. Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK;3. Epidemiology and Medical Statistic Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK;4. School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK;5. Campus Fryslân, University of Groningen, Leeuwarden, the Netherlands |
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| Abstract: | Deforestation due to ever-increasing activities of the growing human population has been an issue of major concern for the global environment. It has been especially serious in the last several decades in the developing countries. A population-deforestation model has been developed by the authors to relate the population density with the cumulative forest loss, which is defined and computed as the total forest loss until 1990 since prior to human civilisation. NOAA-AVHRR-based land cover map and the FAO forest statistics have been used for 1990 land cover. A simulated land cover map, based on climatic data, is used for computing the natural land cover before the human impacts. With the 1990 land cover map as base and using the projected population growth, predictions are then made for deforestation until 2025 and 2050 in both spatial and statistical forms. |
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| Keywords: | forest loss remote sensing population density population-deforestation model global land cover change AVHRR |
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