The medium- and short-term prediction methods of strong earthquakes based on neural network |
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Authors: | ZHI QIANG HAN BI QUAN WANGInstitute of Geophysics State Seismological Bureau Beijing China |
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Affiliation: | (1) Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau, 100081 Beijing, China |
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Abstract: | The field of neural network has found solid application in the past ten years and the field itself is still developing rapidly. Neural network is composed of many simple elements operating in parallel. A neural network can be trained to perform a particular mapping and this is the basis of its application to practical problems. In this paper, new methods for predicting the strong earthquakes are presented based on neural network. Neural network learns from existing earthquake sequences or earthquake precursors how to make medium and short term prediction of strong earthquakes. This paper describes two neural network prediction models. One is the model based on earthquake evolution sequences, which is applied to the modeling of the magnitude evolution sequences in the Mainland of China, the other is based on earthquake precursors, which is applied to the modeling of the occurrence time of strong earthquakes in North China. Test results show that the prediction methods based on neural networks are efficient, and convenient. They would find more application in the future. |
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Keywords: | earthquake prediction neural network modeling earthquake evolution sequence earthquake precursor |
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