上海市城市空间扩展时空特征与预测分析

 本文以1990、1995、2000、2005年的上海市土地利用遥感监测数据为基本数据源,分析了1990-2005年上海市城市空间扩展 的时空特征。同时利用SLEUTH模型对城市空间扩展进行了模拟和精度验证,并对未来30年上海市城市空间扩展进行了预测。结果显示:1990-2005年,上海市城市空间扩展明显,城市面积净增加81 278hm²,净增长10.14%;在扩展的时间过程上呈现先减缓后加剧的趋势,2000-2005年城市用地扩展最为剧烈,城市面积净增加40 668hm²,净增长5.08%,填海造陆是该时期城市扩展的典型特征。SLEUTH模型可以较好地模拟预测上海市城市空间扩展的时空过程,不同时期模拟与遥感监测结果的Kappa系数最高达到了0.8476;未来30年,上海市城市用地将以年平均增长率1.63%的速度扩展,2040年城市用地面积将达到152 685hm²。城市扩展将占用耕地41 824hm²,年平均占用耕地1200hm²。城市扩展的方式主要是边缘增长,东部的浦东新区沿五洲大道向海方向、南部的徐汇区沿沪闵高架路向南,以及西部的嘉定区和青浦区沿京沪高速两侧向西的地区 均是未来城市扩展的主要方向。

Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Future Prediction of Urban Expansion in Shanghai

Rapid urbanization often results in intensive land use change especially in the urban area of China.As an important economic center in China,urban expansion in Shanghai is always at a high speed in recent years.Using land use datasets in 1990,1995,2000 and 2005,derived from interpretation based on Landsat TM/ETM images,this paper firstly analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of urban expansion during 1990-2005,then simulated this process using SLEUTH model and analyzed the simulation precision,and forecasted urban expansion and land use change process in the next 30 years.The results indicated that：（i） the urban expansion is very fast during 1990-2005,the urban land area increased by 81 278 hm2（10.14%）.The temporal process of urban expansion took on a first decrease and then increase trend.The most obvious expansion occurred in 2000-2005,the urban land area increased by 40 668 hm2（5.08%）,and the sea reclamation is the typical characteristic in this time period.（ii） The Lee-Sallee index were more than 0.75 in the calibration process of SLEUTH,and the amount and morphology of simulated urban expansion were more consistent with actual situation in 2005 than in the past.So SLEUTH model could simulate urban growth mode of Shanghai City and obtain high precision result of land use changes,and the Kappa coefficient could be up to 0.8476.（iii） In the next 30 years,Shanghai would expand at an annual average rate of 1.63%,and the city area would be reach 152 685 hm2 in 2040.The urbanization process would occupy 41 824 hm2 cultivated land,and the cultivated land area would decrease at a speed of annual average area of 1200 hm2,but it would not affect the aim of cultivated land protection in the future general land use planning.（iv） The main mode of urban expansion in Shanghai was the edge growth,the direction towards east along Wuzhou Avenue in the Pudong new area,the direction towards south along the Humin elevated road in Xuhui District,and the direction towards west along Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway in Jiading and Qingpu districts,are the main city expansion direction in the future.And（v） from 2010 to 2040,urban expansion in Shanghai will occupy cultivated land 1200hm2 per year,and will occupy cultivated land 41 824 hm2 totally.