温室气体、海表面温度、太阳常数及火山活动对中国地表气温影响之初探

利用全球大气环流模式CAM3.1,对近百年温室气体浓度、全球海表面温度、太阳常数的变化以及火山活动对我国地表气温所产生的影响进行了研究。全球海表面温度的升高及温室气体浓度的增加是导致中国年平均地表气温升高的部分因素。近百年我国年平均地表气温主要经历了两次年代际振荡并逐渐增温。第一次振荡的冷期为1910年代,随后变暖,1940年代达暖峰期。第二次振荡冷期发生于1950~1960年代,随后变暖,暖峰期发生在1990年代。太阳常数和全球海表面温度的两次振荡是造成这两次振荡主要因素,气温、太阳常数和全球海表面温度均发生了准60年周期的年代际振荡,气温振荡的位相落后于太阳常数和全球海表面温度的位相。20世纪20年代以前及60年代以后火山活动的活跃是导致1910年代和1960~1980年代出现冷期的原因之一。

Influences of Greenhouse Gas, Sea Surface Temperature, Solar Constant, and Volcanic Activity on Surface Temperature in China

Using the Community Atmospheric Model Version 3.1 (CAM3.1) of NCAR, the influence of greenhouse gas, global sea surface temperature (SST), solar constant, and volcanic activity on surface temperature is studied. The results show that increase of greenhouse gas and global SST contributes to the warming trend. Over recent 100 years, annual surface temperature in China undergoes two decadal oscillations and increases. China experienced two warm-periods during 1940s and 1990s respectively and two relative cold periods during 1910s and the period of 1950s-1960s. The variations of surface temperate over China, solar constant and SST have an oscillation period of 60 years, two decadal oscillations of surface temperature over China are induced by two decadal oscillations of solar constant and SST, the variation of surface temperature lagged behind of solar constant and SST. The volcanic activities before 1920s and after 1960s are one of the reasons of cooling trend during 1910s and 1960s-1980s.