河南重大暴雨灾害的孕灾风险研究

分析了河南1961年以来的重大灾害事件及致灾性降雨强度和暴雨日数分布等情况,并将暴雨日数分布、重大暴雨事件灾害频次、水库库容、粮食产量、人口密度和地区生产总值作为因子分析了河南省的重大暴雨灾害风险。按照等分法,河南省的南阳、驻马店和信阳为重大暴雨灾害一级风险地区,商丘、周口、郑州、安阳和洛阳为二级风险地区,许昌、平顶山、新乡、焦作为三级风险地区,开封、三门峡、濮阳等为四级风险地区,漯河、鹤壁和济源为五级风险地区。根据水库库容、粮食产量、人口密度和地区生产总值分布情况的研究,建议:提高中部地区中小水库库容、降低上游大中型水库对下游的可能性影响;在评估河南地区灾害风险时,粮食产量是非常必要的因子。另外,在评估因子的选取中,应选择适合于当地的因子进行参数化,提高灾害风险评估在实际工作中的应用价值。

Study on Catastrophic Rainstorm Disaster Risk in Henan

By analyzing the catastrophic disaster events,the rainfall intensity and the distribution of rainstorm days since 1961,taking storm rainfall days,occurrence frequency of rainstorm disaster events,reservoir storage capacity,grain output,density of population and GDP as factors,the catastrophic rainstorm disaster risk in Henan province is analyzed.According to classification,Nanyang,Zhumadian and Xinyang belong to the first class risk area of catastrophic rainstorm disaster; Shangqiu,Zhoukou,Zhengzhou,Anyang and Luoyang belong to the second class;Xuchang,Pingdingshan,Xinxiang and Jiaozuo belong to the third class; Kaifeng,Sanmenxia and Puyang belong to the fourth class;Luohe,Hebi and Jiyuan belong to the fifth class.Based on the analysis of reservoir storage capacity,grain output,population density and distribution of GDP,the following recommendations are given as followings: capacity of the medium and small reservoirs in the central region should be improved so as to reduce impact of large and medium sized reservoir in upstream region;as for disaster risk assessment in Henan province,grain output factor is quite necessary.Furthermore,in assessment factors selecting,different factors should be properly selected in different area in order to improve the disaster risk assessment application.