Verification of cloud cover forecast with INSAT observation over western India

Since the beginning of the summer monsoon 2009, experimental mesoscale weather forecasts in real time are being generated using WRF model by the Meteorology and Oceanography Group at the Space Applications Centre (ISRO) and are disseminated through MOSDAC () to various users. To begin with, the 12 h, 24 h and 48 h forecasts for the western India region are made available. A study is undertaken to comprehensively assess the cloudiness prediction performance of WRF model. The evaluations have been made over the three months period during monsoon 2009. INSAT cloud imagery data has been used as a reference for these evaluations. The verification strategy includes computation of various skill scores. It is seen that probability of detection (POD) of cloud is 84% and the false alarm rate (FAR) is around 18%. It is hoped that this assessment will provide information on the use of these forecasts in various applications.