Longterm Prediction of Solar Activity Using the Combined Method |
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Authors: | Hanslmeier Arnold Denkmayr Klaus Weiss Peter |
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Institution: | (1) Institut für Astronomie, Univ.-Platz 5, A-8010 Graz, Austria;(2) Institut für ASW, University of Linz, A-4040 Linz-Auhof, Austria |
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Abstract: | The Combined Method is a non-parametric regression technique for long-term prediction of smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Starting from a solar minimum, a prediction of the succeeding maximum is obtained by using a dynamo-based relation between the geomagnetic aa index and succeeding solar maxima. Then a series of predictions is calculated by computing the weighted average of past cycles of similar level. This technique leads to a good prediction performance, particularly in the ascending phase of the solar cycle where purely statistical methods tend to be inaccurate. For cycle 23 the combined method predicts a maximum of 160 (in terms of smoothed sunspot number) early in the year 2000. |
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